Showing posts with label Theory. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Theory. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

CAA 2012 [Call for Roundtable]: Models and Simulations in Archaeology: where we are and where we are headed?

Following the previous post, I just wanted to let you know that we (Mark Lake, Bernardo Rondelli, Xavier Rubio and myself) are also proposing a roundtable (details below). This year's (again, academic year) CAA will have two sessions on Simulation ("Archaeological Simulation Modelling as Computational Social Science: Next Steps Forward" and "Artificial Societies in Prehistory and Ancient Times") so it's a good opportunity to discuss "hands-on", having solid basis to start from.... In the last couple of years the number of publications using ABM, and computer simulations in general is growing, so we really need to sit back and think carefully about it...


Here's the details of our proposal:



Models and Simulations in Archaeology: where we are and where we are headed?


Computer simulation is a well-established technique which has long provided substantive insights in the physical sciences and increasingly does so in the life sciences. In addition, the field of social simulation has developed rapidly since the mid 1990s. The archaeological application of computer models dates back to the early 1970s, but despite forty years of activity, the impact of simulation has, with a few exceptions, been relatively slight, and it is largely still viewed as a fringe activity (e.g. Lake 2010). However, the first decade of the new ,millennium has witnessed a resurgence of interest, made manifest in a growing number of publications which provide the potential to change this perspective. In large part this is due to the way that agent-based modelling has captured archaeologists’ imagination, especially given the increased availability of simple software environments (e.g. NetLogo) that do not require advanced knowledge in programming and can easily be run on desktop computers.

Since this increasing “democratisation” of simulation seems likely to lead to more widespread application of the technique to substantive archaeological problems this seems a good moment to take stock and consider whether the appropriate epistemic foundations are in place to support the growth of productive archaeological simulation. It is vitally important to recognise that the availability and accessibility of user-friendly software environments does not solve per se issues arising from the complexity of the model building process and, in particular, the validation and portability of the experiment’s results. Consequently, an epistemological reflection and methodological overview of the use of modelling and simulation in archaeology is very timely. We think that a discussion between specialist and non-specialist, experienced and non-experienced users can stimulate a reflection on where we are, and more importantly, where we are headed in the application of computer simulation to archaeological research questions.

Topics:

Over tthe last decade the archaeological application of computer simulation has taken two distinct directions. On the one hand, a number of models have been developed to test specific hypotheses. This approach quantitatively or semi-quantitatively compares a existing archaeological data with artificial data produced by the simulations. The other direction is the development of abstract models derived from assumptions developed within our discipline or elsewhere (behavioural ecology, evolutionary anthropology, biology etc.), which have been used in to generate new
theories, or to explore the implications of previously formulated ones in a dynamic and computational environment.

The two directions are not mutually exclusive, but each leads to a series of important question: How can we validate abstract models? How can we translate archaeological and anthropological theories in terms computational and/or mathematical algorithms? How do the limits of computational representation affect our model building exercise? How does the scientific audience evaluate extremely complex and realistic models? How do we communicate our models, especially to non- specialists?
By discussing these concrete questions we hope that the roundtable will approach deeper questions, such as: will computer simulation have an impact on our discipline or it will remain a fringe activity? If the former, then will increased use of simulation change mainstream archaeology or it will lead to the emergence of a “new” sub-discipline?

We are particularly interested in the following topics:

  • Abstract vs. Realistic Models: An adversative or complemental epistemology? 
  • Mathematical Models vs. Agent Based Models: two faces of the same coin or alternative pathways?
  • Validation and Verification of Computer Models. 
  • Communicating Models: looking for a common protocol or a language? 
  • Potential pitfalls and common problems of modelling in archaeology.
  • Why computer models are still an outsider?


Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Le cadavre exquis boira le vin nouveau

I'm currently reading "Fooled by Randomness" by N.Talib, and I'm really enjoying a chapter dedicated on randomness in humanities... So let me start with two quotes:

" 'Reality is part of the dialectic of consciousness' says Derrida; however, according to Scuglia[1] , it is not so much reality that is part of the dialectic of consciousness, but rather the absurdity, and hence the futility, of reality."

"Sound is the change in the specific condition of segregation of the material parts, and in the negation of this condition; merely an abstract or an ideal ideality, as it were, of that specification [...]"

Very exciting. Now you have to guess: one of the two quotes is from Hegel, and the other one has been generated from a computer using the Postmodernism generator, created by Andrew C. Bulhak using the Dada Engine. (you can find the whole article I've created here, and if you want to make your own paper just click here).
Now, it's all fun, and if you know some philosophy you've probably guessed right (Hegel is the second one, also because it's very unlikely that he've quoted Derrida which was born 101 years after his death...). The point is, with another random combination (without Derrida being quoted) could someone have fooled you? To be honest I'm not a philosopher nor a postmodernist and I'll be concerned if you fool me with a scientific paper on spatial analysis rather than this (it would be nice to actually have a positivist generator to see how it would work...). I simply don't care much, but actually Alan Sokal, a physicist  of New York University, tried to submit a paper on Social Text by randomly creating (not with a computer this time) meaningless sentences... Well you can read his accepted and published paper here....Later in the same year, Sokal explains his point in another paper, (this time generated non-randomly I think):

"For some years I've been troubled by an apparent decline in the standards of intellectual rigor in certain precincts of the American academic humanities [...]. I decided to try a modest (though admittedly uncontrolled) experiment: Would a leading North American journal of cultural studies -- whose editorial collective includes such luminaries as Fredric Jameson and Andrew Ross -- publish an article liberally salted with nonsense if (a) it sounded good and (b) it flattered the editors' ideological preconceptions?"


and then states:

"Social Text's acceptance of my article exemplifies the intellectual arrogance of Theory -- meaning postmodernist literarytheory -- carried to its logical extreme. No wonder they didn't bother to consult a physicist. If all is discourse and ``text,'' then knowledge of the real world is superfluous; even physics becomes just another branch of Cultural Studies. If, moreover, all is rhetoric and ``language games,'' then internal logical consistency is superfluous too: a patina of theoretical sophistication serves equally well. Incomprehensibility becomes a virtue; allusions, metaphors and puns substitute for evidence and logic. My own article is, if anything, an extremely modest example of this well-established genre." (bold mine)

Scary, but perhaps true also in some archaeology and anthropology? While asking this question I've just read on Carl Lipo's blog how the executive committee of the  American Anthropological Association  are proposing to rephrase  their mission statement removing the word "science" (see here).

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Inference From Confirming Evidence

Every once in a while I read papers in Archaeology claiming about there allegedly scientific methods failing to choose the right type of hypothesis testing for their models. While reading Taleb's "The Black Swan" I come across a very nice  psychological experiment conducted 50 years ago by Wason (1960).
The basic idea is that you have a data-set with a specific pattern, and in order to explain the underlying rule you conduct a series of experiments to test and propose a model. Of course in archaeology you cannot strictly do experiments all the time, but you can look for other data which will support or not support your model.
Now the experiment is based on a simple sequence of number, and one should simply "discover" the underlying rule. The player can propose another sequence of numbers and the experimenter will tell you whether such sequence can been generated from the same algorithm of the original data-set or not.

The sequence is:

2-4-6

Now, most people will most likely propose something like following sequence:

8-10-12

which will basically test the model increase by two. Now if the experimenter will tell you "Yes", you'll be probably quite happy about that, and probably you will write a paper for the Journal of Integer Sequences, which believe it or not, actually exists) with something lines:
"Our experiment confirmed our hypothesis of the increase by two rule". Very few will claim that this model is wrong and will be part of the scientific knowledge of your field (I'm sure that none of the editors of Journal of Integer Sequences will accept your paper, nor will fall on this trap...)
Now the big problem here is that the algorithm with which 2-4-6 has been generated was numbers in ascending order. Thus actually 5-6-7 would also have been accepted by the experimenter. However, it's vert likely that most people uses these experiments to confirm their model rather trying to falsify it. Testing 5-6-7 would have allowed a re-evaluation of the originally proposed rule and might have lead to the right answer.
The question now is: what sequence of number are you proposing in your archaeological research?


References:

  • Taleb, N.N.,2007, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Random House, 
  • Wason, P.C., 1960, On the failure to eliminate hypotheses in a conceptual task, The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 12: 3, 129-140.